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The Shift in Booking Behaviour: What SA Hotels & Lodges Need to Know for 2026
By Joanne Hutchinson, CEO – Proactive Hospitality Solutions
Across South Africa’s hotel and lodge sector, many owners and managers are asking the same question:
“Why are our forward bookings down, even though weekly pick-ups are stronger than last year?”
It’s a pattern we’re seeing across the entire PHS portfolio and the broader industry. At first glance, the forward 12-month pace may appear soft, in some cases showing half the revenue on the books compared to this time last year. But when we analyse the weekly pick-ups and conversion activity, the story is very different.
In many cases, weekly production is outperforming last year, sometimes even doubling year-on-year. This trend is clear across weeks 40–47 and continues into the early 50s for a number of properties.
So, what’s really happening?
Travellers Are Booking Later – Not Less
The most important shift we’re tracking is a compressed booking window. Guests are still travelling to South Africa, and demand across our key source markets remains stable—some markets are even growing.
But the way travellers book has changed.
Across the UK, Europe, the US, and South Africa’s domestic market, we are seeing a consistent behavioural trend:
- Guests research early
- Track prices for weeks or months
- Delay committing until they feel conditions are favourable
What used to be a 6–12 month lead time has in many cases tightened to 30–90 days.
This creates an illusion of weaker demand when reviewing long-term pace, but the actual short-term activity proves otherwise.
What’s Driving This Shift? Key Market Factors
1. High flight prices and limited airline capacity
Fares from the UK, EU, and US to South Africa have increased significantly. Travellers now wait for fare drops or specific flight deals before confirming accommodation.
2. Economic pressures in core markets
Inflation and interest rate increases across Europe and the UK have made travellers more cautious. They still travel—but they confirm late.
3. Rand volatility influencing decision-making
A weaker rand helps convert interest into bookings fast. But many travellers “wait and watch” before making payments, extending the decision window.
4. Dynamic airline pricing
Airlines are more adaptive than ever, and many travellers follow fare alerts before finalising itineraries.
5. Increased competition across long-haul destinations
Kenya, Tanzania, Namibia, and even non-African long-haul favourites like Thailand and the Maldives are marketing heavily. Travellers take longer before narrowing down choices.
6. Shifting safari patterns
Weather variability and seasonal changes have altered how travellers think about wildlife holidays. People are planning around rainfall, photography conditions, and best sightings, rather than fixed months.
The Real Takeaway: Demand Is Healthy
Although the long-term numbers may suggest a downturn, the reality is far more positive.
Short-term production indicates:
- Stronger interest
- Higher conversion
- More confident booking behaviour
- Stable or growing year-on-year demand
The challenge isn’t demand, it’s timing.
Understanding this shift is crucial for accurate forecasting and pricing. Hotels and lodges need to adjust their revenue management strategies to reflect shorter lead times, monitor weekly pick-ups more closely, and ensure pricing remains responsive as demand materialises.
What This Means for Your Strategy in 2026
To stay aligned with this trend, PHS recommends:
- Rebuilding pacing curves to reflect shorter lead times
- Adjusting revenue forecasts to match new booking patterns
- Avoiding premature rate drops when long-term pace looks weak
- Strengthening last-minute rate strategies for short windows
- Tracking conversion patterns at weekly level rather than relying on annual forecasts alone
This change in traveller behaviour is not temporary—it has become a global trend, and South Africa is no exception.
Our Commitment to You
At PHS, we are continuously analysing booking patterns, global market conditions, and revenue data so that your commercial strategy remains ahead of the curve.
We will continue providing insights and practical approaches to help you maximise performance in this new landscape.
If you would like a personalised pacing analysis for your property or a strategy session for 2026 planning, our team is ready to assist.
